4.13 총선 평가와 더민주의 진로

                 - ‘신화의 정치’를 넘어서 

목   차

1. 4.13 총선 미스터리 ········································································ 1

❍ 새누리당 미스터리 ··········································································1

   ➀ 충격적 대참패 ····························································································1

   ➁ ‘진박역풍’ ·····································································································2

❍ 더민주 미스터리 ·············································································4

   ➀ 수도권 압승 ································································································4

   ➁ '비대위 효과' ······························································································6

❍ 국민의당 미스터리 ·········································································7

   ➀ '녹색 바람' ··································································································7

   ➁ ‘강철수 효과’ ·····························································································8

2. 선거문법 파괴 ················································································ 9

❍ 진영내 선거 ····················································································9

❍ 지지층 이탈 선거 ·········································································10

❍ 유동적 경고선거 ··········································································12

3. 선거의 신화 ··················································································· 15

❍ 기울어진 운동장의 신화 ·····························································15

   ➀ 콘크리트 지지층? ··················································································15

   ➁ 앵그리 보터? ···························································································16

❍ 야권분열 필패의 신화 ·································································20

   ➀ 지지도 디커플링 ····················································································20

   ➁ 야권확장 ···································································································23

❍ 호남의 신화 ·················································································26

   ➀ 전략적 투표 ·····························································································26

   ➁ 광주정신 그리고 호남색깔 ································································29

4. ‘박근혜 신화’의 붕괴 ··································································· 31

❍ 시대교체 - 신우파의 몰락 ··························································31

❍ ‘선거의 여왕’ 박근혜의 ‘정치적 자살’ ········································33

5. 2017 ‘시대교체’를 위하여 ··························································· 37

❍ 문제는 ‘정권 실망 부동층’이야 ···················································37

❍ 호남정치 복원 ··············································································40

❍ 수권정당의 길 ···············································································43

   ➀ 타협의 정치 ······························································································43

   ➁ 유능한 경제정당 ·····················································································46

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