4.13 총선 평가와 더민주의 진로
- ‘신화의 정치’를 넘어서
목 차
1. 4.13 총선 미스터리 ········································································ 1
❍ 새누리당 미스터리 ··········································································1
➀ 충격적 대참패 ····························································································1
➁ ‘진박역풍’ ·····································································································2
❍ 더민주 미스터리 ·············································································4
➀ 수도권 압승 ································································································4
➁ '비대위 효과' ······························································································6
❍ 국민의당 미스터리 ·········································································7
➀ '녹색 바람' ··································································································7
➁ ‘강철수 효과’ ·····························································································8
2. 선거문법 파괴 ················································································ 9
❍ 진영내 선거 ····················································································9
❍ 지지층 이탈 선거 ·········································································10
❍ 유동적 경고선거 ··········································································12
3. 선거의 신화 ··················································································· 15
❍ 기울어진 운동장의 신화 ·····························································15
➀ 콘크리트 지지층? ··················································································15
➁ 앵그리 보터? ···························································································16
❍ 야권분열 필패의 신화 ·································································20
➀ 지지도 디커플링 ····················································································20
➁ 야권확장 ···································································································23
❍ 호남의 신화 ·················································································26
➀ 전략적 투표 ·····························································································26
➁ 광주정신 그리고 호남색깔 ································································29
4. ‘박근혜 신화’의 붕괴 ··································································· 31
❍ 시대교체 - 신우파의 몰락 ··························································31
❍ ‘선거의 여왕’ 박근혜의 ‘정치적 자살’ ········································33
5. 2017 ‘시대교체’를 위하여 ··························································· 37
❍ 문제는 ‘정권 실망 부동층’이야 ···················································37
❍ 호남정치 복원 ··············································································40
❍ 수권정당의 길 ···············································································43
➀ 타협의 정치 ······························································································43
➁ 유능한 경제정당 ·····················································································46
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